シリコンバレー在住エンジニアの、マーケティング、経済、IT、人生についてのウンチク。 ( 1,165,972 since 2006.02.20 )
微分化された社会 その5 「株式市場」
[inline:fragmented_society_5.jpg] 今やPCさえあればリアルタイムに株価がわかる。自宅がトレーディングルームになる。今まで証券マンが電話で株主からの注文を受け継いで株式の売買をしていたものが、インターネットを利用したネット証券なるものが生まれ、人に代わってコンピュータが処理するようになった。
実は今まで証券マンと個人投資家との間では大きな情報格差があった。個人投資家は株式の「時価」しかわからないが、電話を取り次いだ証券マン
はその売数量と買数量がどれだけあるかわかるのである。つまりたとえばこうだ。個人が買おうとした値段よりも10円高いところで売数量が大量にあったとす
る。証券マンはそれを知っているが、証券会社とは株の売買手数料で儲けている会社だ。顧客が得しようが損しようが知ったこっちゃない。顧客が聞けば教えて
くれるだろうが、その事実を自ら進んで伝える義務はない。
しかし中にはその証券会社を通して億単位で株を売買している大変なお金持ちの個人投資家もいる。この人の注文は証券会社にとっても手数料を通して
大きな利益をもたらすので、損されて破産でもされたら証券会社は金のなる木を失ってしまう。その結果、このような証券会社にとっての上客は一般の個人投資
家よりも優遇されるだろう。有利な情報も積極的に教えてくれる。ゆえにネット証券以前（インターネット以前）は一般投資家が株で儲けられる機会は非常にま
れであったといえる。
裕福な個人投資家に対しては損失補てんすら行われていたほどだ。億単位以下の金を動かしている個人投資家なんかは証券会社にとってはすべて「ゴミ投資家」に見えただろう。
さて、1999年の終わり頃からネット証券が登場するとこの状況は一変する。今まで証券マンに電話で聞かないとわからなかった時価の上下の売り買
い数量（これを板情報という）がパソコンを通して個人でもわかるようになったのだ。電話の時代は証券マンが板情報を教えてくれたとしても売り買いの注文を
出した頃にはすでにその時価は動いているかもしれなかった。
しかし今やそれがリアルタイムで手に取るようにわかるようになった。私が知る限り、日本で最初にリアルタイムのマーケット情報を出したネット証券
は現在の楽天証券（旧DLJディレクトSFG証券（当時の住友系））で、「マーケットスピード」というソフトである。同時まだお金持ちの個人投資家がまだ
PC
に慣れていなかった頃、マーケットスピードを使えば誰でも株で儲けることができたと思う（私も例外ではない）。なぜなら個人投資家が始めて証券会社や機関
投資家と同じレベルの情報を持つに至ったのだから（しかしまだこれだけでは不十分で、どの証券会社がどの株をどれだけ売買しているかという情報までは手に
入らなかった。しかし少なくとも株価がすべて「ガラス張り」になった瞬間ではあった）。
マーケットスピードは今では有料になってしまったが（それだけ価値があるソフトだということ）でももちろん利用可能である。
さて、これが微分化とどう関係があるのか。
マーケットスピードでは分単位の売買状況と上下5本の板情報（時価を中心に上下の売り買い数量）が「リアルタイム」に把握できるのである。ためしに自分が売買注文を出すとほぼリアルタイムに注文が反映されていることがわかる。
このような状況の下では、10円単位で上下する株があったとすると、たとえば時価が100円で110円の売り注文が極端に少ない場合などは、次の
瞬間にその株価は110円になりそうだということがわかる。であれば株価は上がる。そうなると売買戦略が立てやすくなるだろう。1分単位で株価は変動する
のだから、そのスピードにあわせて自分も売買すれば儲けられる確度が高くなる。そうやって板情報とにらめっこしながら売買するのがデイトレ（デイトレー
ド）である。
従来の株式は長期保有が常識であったわけだが、デイトレでは売買はその日のうちに完結するのが基本だ。日本の場合株式市場は09:00～15:
00なので、15:00
から翌朝まで東京市場がしまっている間に世界で戦争や自信が起こってＮＹあたりの株価が暴落するかもしれない。そうすると翌日の東京市場も確実に影響を受
けるだろう。今やマーケットはグローバルで24時間眠らないからだ。
デイトレは株価を微分する。「これは微分化された社会」というコンセプトを思いついた起点である。最初はデイトレだけ考えていたコンセプトを拡大
していくと、IT
によって世の中の情報すべてが「微分化」され、その微分化された極小の断片に価値がつく（結果的に価格付けがされる）ということが、今まさに起こっている
ことなのだ。
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