シリコンバレー在住エンジニアの、マーケティング、経済、IT、人生についてのウンチク。 ( 1,166,011 since 2006.02.20 )
卵はひとつの籠に盛るな－資産三分法
「卵はひとつの籠に盛るな」
という教えが昔からある。これは、ひとつのかごに卵を一緒にしてコケたら、すべての卵がつぶれて台無しになるから、いくつかのかごに分けて保存せよ、ということである。
資産管理についても同じことがいえる。経済学部の学生であれば、資産三分法というものを真っ先に習うだろう。これは、まとまった資産があったら、「卵はひとつの籠に盛るな」の格言よろしく、土地、株、預金にそれぞれ 1/3 くらいずつ分けて投資をしなさい、ということである。
自分の財産として現金だけ持っていてもそこからは何も生まれないし、かといってすべて土地だけで持っておくのもよくない。世の中には資産として持っておける対象として、現金、預金、株、国債、投資信託、マンションや家などの不動産、土地などいろいろあるのだから、それぞれにバランスよく配分せよ、ということである。
経済学では、「今すぐにお金（現金）がほしい」といった場合、換金性が高いこと、つまり「すぐに現金化できるもの」を、流動性が高いという。そうすると、当然のことながら世の中でもっとも流動性の高いものは現金である。現金と比較して、持っている株を売って手元に現金が届くまでには数日かかる。土地の場合は、買い手がすぐに見つかるかはわからないから、手続きも含めて現金化するのは株よりももっと時間がかかる。株や土地は流動性が（現金と比べて）低いといえる。
われわれの身近にありそうな投資対象の中で、流動性が高い順に並べると次のようになるだろう。
- 現金
- 小切手（日本ではあまり一般的ではないが、米国などでは日常生活の中で普通に使われる）
- 普通預金
- 定期預金
- 国債・金の延べ棒
- 株・投資信託
- 土地・不動産
さて、上の中で最もリスクの低い資産、つまり持っていて損をする可能性が低い資産は現金といえるが、先に述べた通り現金は持っていても何も生み出さない。現金同様に損をするリスクはほとんどない定期預金にすればいくばかの利息が付くが換金性は現金より薄れる（定期預金だって、預け先の銀行が突然つぶれるリスクは、なきにしもあらずだから、リスクゼロとは言えない）。一方で株や土地は値上がり利益（これをキャピタルゲインという）が期待できる一方で、値下がりする可能性もあるから、損失する可能性、すなわちリスクは高い。
つまり自分のリスク許容範囲の中で、バランスよく投資すること（資産配分をすること）が重要なのだ。「そんなこといったって株なんかの投資には興味ない。リスクのある金融商品は怖い」という考えもあるかもしれない。しかし、1990年にノーベル経済学賞を受賞したマコーウィッツ・ミラー・シャープによる MPT（モダンポートフォリオセオリー／現代証券投資理論）、そしてその理論に含まれる EMT （効率的市場仮説）では、効率的フロンティアとよばれる、資産管理においてはノーリスク（現金・預金）の資産とリスク資産（株・土地など）のバランスをとった均衡点が存在することを、数学的に証明していることも知っておくべきだろう。
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