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ライブドアショック

先週末、こちら（アメリカ）の TV を観ていたら、年が明けてから 2 週間して 「レコ大」 をやっていた。その中でプレゼンターにホリエモンが出てきた。私は実は TV でホリエモンが出ているのを見たのはそれが初めてだった。かなり緊張していた様子だった。これが社長か？とも思った。私も偉そうなことを言ってるかも知れないが（まぁいつものことですから）、私も 3,000 人くらい集まるドコモの株主総会で発言したことは何回かある。次のプレゼンテーターである小池百合子はさすがにアナウンサーをやっていただけあってスピーチはうまかった。ああいう場でのスピーチは要は度胸の問題だが、ホリエモンはこっちが見ていてドキドキしてしまうな、大丈夫か？と思っていた矢先のこと、、、（前置き長い、すまぬ）

みなさんご存知なようにライブドアが強制捜査された。風説の流布、粉飾決算などの容疑らしい。この時点では社長であるホリエモンが逮捕されたり、刑が確定した訳ではないのでなんとも言えないが、強制捜査が入ったということは検察側も強力な証拠・情報をつかんでいるに違いない。プライドもあるからいかなる容疑でも立件していくだろう。

それはそれで驚いたが今日もっと驚いたのは東証の売買停止だ。通常日本の株式市場の終了は 15:00 であるが、今日 (2006/01/18 JST) はなんと 14:20 に終わってしまったのだ。私は今日の後場は自分の PC からずっと相場をながめていたのだが、14:20 でデータが突然途絶えた。またネット証券がダウン？と思ったら、今回は東証のシステムがパンクしそうになったので事前に売買停止の措置をとったそうだ。もうこれは前代未聞だ。サッカーでスタジアムに人があふれかえりそうなまでになってしまったのでサッカーの試合を中止、もちろん TV 中継も中止したようなもんだ。

さて、私は 2005/05/21 に投稿した 映画 ウォール街 で、

ホリエモンは Gecko の言葉そのものを実践しているのだ。

と書いた。ホリエモンがほとんどウォール街の映画とほとんど同じ通りのシナリオを演じるとは、私自身も思ってもみなかった（彼はこの映画観てないのか？）。私は海外から日本の様子を観察していてずっとホリエモンの生き方が大嫌いであった。今回の強制捜査（＝何かしっぺ返しが来るということ）はある意味私の 「想定内」 だ （まぁ、今だから言えるんですけどね） 。今回の 「ライブドアショック」 をもって自分の生き方が正しいと証明されたわけでもないが、信念の違いは未来に大きな結果の違いを生むのだということは確認できた。

要は、たとえばアップルの CEO スティーブジョブズとライブドアの社長であるホリエモン比べて、どっちの会社が今後伸びるか考えてみればいいということだ。アップルは口先だけではない。いい仕事をする。だから信用される。だから株価は上がる（先週末、私が買ったときの 10 倍になった）。

スティーブジョブズは先週の講演で従業員の仕事（ Mac の、インテルへの移行）について 「night and weekend」 と言っていた（昼夜 ＝ 「day and night」 ではないところがミソ）。ライブドアは、何も生み出していない。M&A（企業の吸収合併）は映画ウォール街でも中心的に描かれる金儲けのテクニックだ。ホリエモンはまるで魔法をかけたように金を増やしているようにみえるが、それは手品師がしていることと同じで幻想にすぎない。手品師が幻想を提供する限りはお客さんも喜ぶだろうが、その幻想が嘘の上に成り立っていたとしたらそれは詐欺師かペテン師なのだ。

本当にライブドアを信じてる人が多いなら、ストップ安になったりしない。本当にホリエモンを尊敬し、信じているなら、今こそライブドアの株に買いを入れたらいい。売ってくれる人はものすごくたくさんいる。しかし市場の反応はどうなのか？ 2 日連続ストップ安、信用買いを 100 万円単位で投資してた輩は 1 日経つごとに 100 万ずつ借金が増えていく。2 日で 200 万。たとえ 10 万単位で投資していても 20 万の借金。この分だと明日もストップ安だろう。実際はまだ逮捕もされてないのに、これほど売りを浴びせられる会社、そしてホリエモン。今回のライブドアショックは東証のシステムまで止めてホリエモンはある意味 2 ちゃんねるでいうところの 「ネ申」 ではないかと思えてくるが、人間の信用とは何か、そしてお金とは、生き方、人生とは何か？を考えるいい機会であろう。

私は、地味だけどコツコツやるタイプの方が好きだ。そうしているうちは決して社会に認められることはないかも知れないが、結果的にそうやっていれば自然と報いがくるのではないかと、自戒をこめて思う次第である。

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Posted on 2006-01-17 by yas | |
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