次はロボット

　　日本の技術はクルマ、エレクトロニクス（ノート PC、デジカメ、AV 機器、薄型 TV など）の分野で世界を席巻してきた。ケータイは世界市場へは進出しているとはいえず内需に留まっているが、技術やサービスの面ではこちらも世界一だろう。ケータイの分野はあまりにも日本は進み過ぎていて世界が追いついていってない。

　　2006 年時点でこのような状況のもと、日本の技術が次に向かう方向はやはりロボットにあると考える。この考え方は 2001年にすでに「ケータイの次に来るもの」で触れているのだが、その理由をさらに詳しく考えてみよう。

（日本を取り巻く背景、諸事情）

日本は先進国がかつて経験したことのない少子高齢化社会に突入しつつある。「4人に1人がお年寄り」という社会は現実のものとなりつつある。
現在でも日本人の平均寿命は世界的にトップクラスであり、医学、医療技術の進展によって今後も平均寿命は延びる可能性が高い。
一方で少子化には歯止めがかからない。理由は、日本は世界一賃金水準が高い国であり、1人の子育てにかかる費用は私大まで親が世話した場合、マンション1件分であるため、このような社会で子どもを作るインセンティヴがない。これは税金を支払う人数が今後大きく減っていくことを意味する。
すでに多くの年金基金は破綻している。これは高齢者を支える仕組みが崩壊していることを意味する。

（なぜロボットなのか？）

　　上に挙げた背景から日本では高齢者を支える若い労働力（つまり、税金を払う人）が必要である。この問題を解決するためには大きく分けて次の 3通りの選択肢がある。

子育て支援など、政策によって出生率を上げる。
海外から移民を受け入れ、労働力を確保すること。日本はその国で得た所得に課税する主義をとっているからである。つまり日本国内での労働を増やさなければならない。
ロボットを活用すること。生活に関わる単純な作業はロボット技術の進展により代替できる可能性がある。

　　それでは、これら解決策の問題点をみてみよう。

出生率の低下は先進国共通で見られる現象であり、それは先進国では娯楽が行き届いたり、価値観が多様化するためであろう。日本の場合はもう1つ別の理由があって、小さい頃の子育て支援を手厚くしても、その後の教育コストが重くのしかかるということがある。なぜなら、公立の学校では学級崩壊が起きており、自分のの子どもにまともな教育を受けさせようと思ったら私立に行かせるしかないからだ。公立の学校では問題のあった生徒をクビにはできない。私立の学校ではそれができるから、生徒の質を一定に保ち、教育の水準を保つことができる。これは小泉政権が取った弱肉強食の社会、つまり「勝ち組・負け組」による貧富の差の拡大から必然的に起きる現象である。従って出生率を上げるというのはなかなか難しいだろうと思う。
日本という国は1,500年の歴史の中でどの国からも侵略されたことがなく、また移民を大量に受け入れたこともないため、移民に対しては日本国民の多くが抵抗を持っていると考えられる。
そこでロボットの登場なのである。IT を最大限に活用することにより、ある程度の労働力不足の問題は解決すると思われる ─── むしろ、そのようにITを活用しないと日本は本当に世界的な競争力を失ってしまうのである。日本の企業が弱くなるのではない。すでにグローバル化が進んでいるので、本社機能を日本におく必要はないためである。従来の産業の空洞化はすなわち生産部門＝工場（ブルーカラー）の空洞化であった。今後は経営・企画部門（ホワイトカラー）の空洞化が問題となる。

　　ホンダの ASIMO を実際に見たことのある人であれば、ロボット社会が非現実なものではないということがわかるだろう。あの動きはどう見ても中に人間が入ってるとしか思えない（笑）。少子高齢化社会に向けてまずは介護ロボットや盲導犬 AIBO などが実現されれば、日本はこれらのロボット技術を内需型の経済からグローバル経済へ適用し、国際社会の中で生き残っていけるだろう。

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