シリコンバレー在住エンジニアの、マーケティング、経済、IT、人生についてのウンチク。 ( 1,166,080 since 2006.02.20 )
割れ窓理論 (Broken Windows Theory)
最初にいっておくと、これは窓割れ理論ではありません。割れ窓理論です（すみません私、ずっと頭の中に窓割れ理論としてインプットしていました。どうりでググって Wikipedia で出て来なかったはずだ）。
割れ窓理論とは、「ビルのたった1枚の割れた窓を放置しておくだけで、管理人のいないと思われたそのビルは荒らされ、ビルが荒れると周辺の治安も悪くなり、ひいては街全体の治安も悪くなるから、些細なことだけれども、まずはその1枚の割れた窓を直してみよう」というもので、ニューヨークの前市長であるジュリアーニがこの理論を応用して治安が良くなったとのことで一躍有名になった。その割れ窓理論のカラクリは、ヤバい経済学という本に簡潔に書かれているから引用してみよう。
軽い迷惑程度のことでも放っておくとそのうちそれが大きな迷惑に発展する。誰かが窓を割って、それがすぐに直されないのを見ると、その人は他の窓を割ったって大丈夫だろうと思い、そのうちビルに火までつけるかもしれない（ヤバい経済学 p.160）。
「ニューヨーク (NY) は怖い街」から「治安の良い街」に変貌を遂げたというのは、私も実際に体験した。というのは、私の初めての海外旅行が 1990年のニューヨークだったのだ。このとき、一歩路地に入ると麻薬はどうかと話しかけられる。一人で表通りを歩いていても「ヘイ！そこの NYU！！！（若者はみな New York University の学生なのだろう）」と声をかけられ、本当に怖かった。そして 10年後、2000年に再び NY に今度は会社のお金で 2週間ばかり語学留学に行ったときには、街はきれいになり、あの有名だった地下鉄の落書きは消え、これが同じ NY なのかと思ったものだ。夕方授業が終ると NY 近くのフィラデルフィア (Philadelphia) とかアトランティック・シティ (Atlantic City) に遠距離バスで行って深夜帰って来るという危ないことをしたのだが、やはりアメリカなので怖かったものの、それでも東京の危ないところよりも治安はよいのではないか？と感じたものだった。
NY の治安が良くなったのは、前ジュリアーニ市長のおかげかと思っていたら、ヤバい経済学のレビィッツによれば、これは割れ窓理論のおかけでもジュリアーニのおかけでもなく、前ジュリアーニ市長のその前の市長であるディンキンスが警官を増やしたからだ、と主張している。 前出の Wikipedia でもはてなでも、NY の治安回復はこの割れ窓理論が功を奏したのかどうかは議論の余地がある、としている。
NY 市での「成功」にしても、景気回復とそれによる失業率の改善と時期的に重なっているため、この理論に基づいた政策による成果なのかどうかは（理論そのものに）議論の余地がある、としている。
NY の例は議論の余地があるとしても、東京ディズニーランド（TDL）は割れ窓理論を実践しているのではないかと思うところがある。東京ディズニーランドでは、まずゴミ箱が至る所に配置され、ゴミを落としたら目立つように地面の色が塗装されているそうだ。さらに、ゴミの清掃員でなくてもキャストもゴミを見つけたらすぐに拾うようにしているのだそうだけれど、確かにあの空間でゴミをポイ捨てする気にはなれない。
TDL の場合は、政府や地方自治体が管理するような公共の場、たとえば公園ではなく、一企業の私的な所有地であるため、ここでも割れ窓理論が適用され得るのか議論の余地が実はある。それでは少し考え方を犯罪というマイナスの行動から親切というプラスの行動に変えた場合に、心温まる CM のように、周囲から親切ばかりされている状況はどうだろうか。おそらく自分も親切せずにいられなくなる、ということはいえると思う。
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