シリコンバレー在住エンジニアの、マーケティング、経済、IT、人生についてのウンチク。 ( 1,166,090 since 2006.02.20 )
ビルゲイツの面接試験－ジャンケン編
より。
あなた（＝Aさん）とBさんにジャンケンを連続で１０００回してもらいます。あなたもBさんも、パーで勝つたびに５００円、チョキで勝つたびに２００円の賞金を主催者からもらえます。グーで勝ったり、アイコになった場合には一円ももらえません。この条件で、あなたの賞金を最大化するために、どんな戦略を採りますか？ただし、Bさんと前もって相談することはできないし、試合中はしゃべったり身振りで合図を送ってはいけません。表情も見えないように、ミラーガラスのヘルメットを被ってもらいます。試合中に見えるのは相手が何を出したかだけです。
ちなみに、この問題には面白いパラドックスが隠されている。普通に考えると、グーを出しても期待値はゼロなので、出してもしかたがない。と、いうことは、相手もグーは出して来ないので、パーを出しても決して勝つことはできない。そうなると、チョキを出すしかないが、相手も同じロジックで考えてくるとチョキ同士のアイコになってしまう。
「行動経済学」という本に、この手の戦略の考え方が書いてあったような気がする。このような状況で利益を最大化するということは、裏返せば損失を最小化するということでもある。ここでいう損失とは、相手が自分よりも儲けてしまった場合だ。
このゲームでは、負けたからといって自分が損することはないのだが、ここでは株の世界の売買で考えてみることにする。株は心理戦。自分が有利だ思う戦略は相手も同じように考えている。株の売買だったら、出題者も触れているように一番損失が少ない戦略は 1,000回チョキを出し続けることだ。
私は株の売買では常にそう心がけている（つまりこのゲームの条件の下ではすべてチョキを出す）。この例でいうと（株の売買の）相手がグーを出してきても自分は損をしない。しかし一方で1,000回のうち一度でも相手が（欲を出して）パーを出せば自分には 200円入ってくる。人間、欲には勝てないから、ここは冷静になって相手の欲が出るチャンスを一度でも待つことだ。
1,000回すべてお互いにチョキを出しアイコのままで終るかもしれない。しかし自分は損はしていない。その代わり相手も損も得もしていないが。
相手がずーーーっと（あるいは最後の最後まで1,000回すべて）グーを出してくる可能性もある。その場合こちらはパーを出したくなるのだが、そのとき相手が見計らったようにチョキを出してきたら相手の取り分は500円である。これは悔しいではないか。相手がグーで勝ち続けてもこちらはチョキを出し続けてぐっとこらえるのである。
この問題は 500円、200円という額が人を惑わせる。仮に単位を「万」にして、パーで勝つなら 500万、チョキなら 200万円自分のところに入ってくると想像を膨らませてみよう。そうしたら（庶民ならば）チョキを出し続けて200万円入ってくれば大儲け、ということになるだろう。
株の世界では少しでも儲けたらあとは逃げるだけである。それがギャンブルの基本中の基本の考え方であり、ギャンブル同様に人生においても同じで、自分の経済的利益を最大化したいなら「投資しないこと」と「税金を払わないこと」だ。
要はミスをしないことだ。単位が数百円と数万円では、生活で使うお金に対する水準が違うので、また違う戦略も考えられるかもしれないのだが、お金の桁数の単位が変わっても本質的に私の戦略の考え方は一貫して変わらない。
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バーバリー バッグはつねに売れ筋ランキングでも上位にランキングされています。種類もバーバリー マフラーショルダーバッグやボストンバッグ、トートバッグなどたくさん種類があるし、さらに若い人向けのバーバリー 財布ブルーレーベルや大人向けのブラックレーベル、本場イギリスのバーバリーからの直輸入アイテム、財布 バーバリーなど展開ラインもバリエーション豊かですよね。そんなバーバリーのバッグのなかでもバーバリー 時計ショルダーバッグは斜めがけしたときのシルエットがすっきり決まっておしゃれなバーバリー 腕時計感じです。定番ノバチェック柄のキャンパ素材でできていて、バーバリー コート機能的。財布や化粧ポーチ、携帯電話などいろんな小物もしっかり入る機能的なデザインなんです。バーバリー ネクタイ肩からかけるストラップの長さ調節もできるから身長とか気にせずに使えます。バーバリー 店舗は英国王室御用達ブランドとして広く知られています。年齢を問わず愛され続けるデザイン。財布 バーバリーの持つ品格こそ、長い歴史の中に刻まれた確かなバーバリー シャツ品質とコダワリの成せる職人の技術の結晶。
エルメスを代表する女性の憧れのバッグといえばバーキンです。
エルメスの完成型ともいえるエルメス バーキンは、王侯貴族やハリウッドセレブからも絶大な人気を集めて、エルメス ベルト今や富裕層の代名詞ともなっているほどの人気です。バーキン エルメス中でも30サイズは日本女性の身長に最も似合うサイズとして知られています。使われる革素材も世界中からエルメス バッグ集められた最高級の革を一流の職人が手作業で縫い合わせるクージュドセリエ方式。エルメス 時計誰もが振り返るバーキンはどんなスタイルやシーンエルメス 財布にもエレガントに演出してくれます。 エルメス スカーフの代名詞ともいえる「バーキン」が誕生したのは、1984年。 エルメス ネックレスのデュマ社長が、整理整頓が苦手なジェーン・バーキンと飛行機で隣り合わせた事から始まります。 エルメス ブレスレット溢れんばかりの荷物をバッグに詰め込んでいる彼女を見た社長は、エルメス 腕時計オータクロアを原型にジェーンにあわせた改良を行い、完成したのがエルメス ケリーです。 フェラガモ 靴 (Ferragamo)は、1927年フィレンツェで創立者であるサルヴァトーレ フェアラガモが、靴の製造メーカーとして開業。サルヴァトーレフェラガモ バッグ・フェラガモが作る靴の愛好者は、オードリー・ヘップバーン、・ローレン、 フェラガモ公式サイトブレタ・ガルボ、マリリン・モンローなどの著名人の顧客も多く抱えてフェラガモ シューズいることでも有名。 のその高いファッションセンスは、女性だけでなく男性にも多くの支持者を得ています。 フェラガモ 財布 は、1927年の創業以来、フェラガモ パンプス靴製品で名声を得てきました。フェラガモ ベルトは、現在では革製品、アクセサリー、フレグランス、およびアパレル製品フェラガモ 時計のデザイン・製造・流通をおこなう一流の企業へと発展しています フェラガモ ネクタイ 。
トリーバーチは、アメリカの人気女性デザイナーで、トリーバーチ アウトレット2004年２月にアメリカ・ニューヨークのトリーバーチ靴ノリータ地区にフラッグショップ＂Tory Burch＂をオープンしました。トリーバーチ バッグその後瞬く間にハリウッドスターをはじめ多くセレブから熱い支持を受け、トリーバーチ 通販今や全世界の幅広い女性から注目を浴びています。トリーバーチ 財布（Tory Burch）は、世界のトップモデルやセレブな方たちがこぞって愛用しているトリーバーチ ハイヒールことでも有名で、その中でもトリーバーチ シューズ、サンダル、トリーバーチ トートバッグなどは、すでに日本でもトリーバーチ ショルダーバッグセレクトショップなどを中心に大人気になっています。トリーバーチ ベルト女性らしい華やかさを感じさせる色使いや光沢感を絶妙に醸し出していますトリーバーチ フラットシューズ。今、アメリカ中で大人気のトリーバーチ 店舗。パリス・ヒルトンや二コール・リッチー、リンジー・ローハンなど多数のセレブにも大人気で、トリーバーチ 激安日本でもじわじわと人気が出て来ています。トリーバーチ 靴 激安フラットシューズ人気の今、トリーバーチは見逃せないブランドです。
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