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「双子のいる家計は、政府の経済政策を如実に反映する」

例えば、今年、15 歳以下の子どもがいる家庭（と、高齢者）に商品券…もとい地域振興券配ったが（※）、これなんかは普通の 1 人しか子どもがいない家計に比べ、双子の子どものいる家計は 1 家計にも関わらずそれだけで金額的効果は単純に 2 倍である。また、同じ商品券構想を考えたところと同じ政党がまた最近になって児童手当（※）の増額を唱えているが、これも双子の家計には 1 人しか子どもがいない家計よりも見えない効果＝心理的効果や、金銭的効果は大きい。

逆に、たとえば消費税をアップされることを考えてみれば、小さい双子の赤ちゃんがいる家計では即座におむつ代やミルク代に振りかかってくる。

つまり、双子の子どものいる家計は政府が行なう経済政策にもろ影響を受けることになる。こういった家計は政策によるブレが大きいのである。よって、減税、公共投資も含め、政府の経済政策を推し量るには双子の子どものいる家計をモニタリングするのがよい方法だと思う。このことはまだ誰も目をつけてないと思うので、もし私が学者だったら、一般の家計と双子の子どものいる家計を比較調査して研究すると思う。

(※)…悪いけど政策的にはサイアクですね＜トータルで考えるとまず、地域振興券で何千億も使うくらいなら政府は光ファイバーやインターネットなどの IT 投資を国策として積極的に進めるべきだったし、多くの学者や評論家は（一刻も早く恒久）減税（を実施すること）の方が効果があると唱えていました。この商品券政策は「15 歳以下の子どもか、60 歳以上（だっけ？）の高齢者」に配布という条件がつき、これは、働いて多くの税金を納めている、若い労働者＝サラリーマンや、子どものいない家庭に対しては不公平感があります。不公平感と言うよりは、はっきりいって不公平です。日本には個人資産が 1,200 兆円（最近は 1,300 兆円）あると言われ、世界的に見ても貧乏ではなく、経済的には最も裕福な国の 1 つであり、景気が冷え込むのはすなわち消費者＝国民の気持ちが冷え込んでいるからであります。この経済とはすなわち 1 人 1 人の個人の心理状況の積み重なりであり、これを上向きにするような政策が大切なのです。その意味では、現在の不景気の原因は消費税が 3％→5％になったことが原因であり、この税率を少しでも下げることで消費者のマインドを上向きにすることはできたでしょう。まぁ、一度上げた消費税率を下げることができたら誰かが本当はすぐにやっているんでしょう。

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エコノの法則第1:<br />「双子のいる家計は政府の経済政策を如実に反映する」

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