日本経済の回復は本物か?

2006/01、出張のために 1 年 8 ヶ月ぶりにアメリカから日本に帰国した。そこで感じたこと、日経に書かれている通り、日本経済の回復の力強さを目の当たりにした思いだ。日経には連日のごとく「好景気、好景気」の言葉が躍っていたが、百聞は一見に如かず、確かにあちこちでそれを裏付けるような風景を見た。

たとえば品川。ここは駅前の再都市再開発が進み、品川駅東口には品川インターシティという超高層複合ビルが完成していた。ずいぶんと綺麗になった。

そして豊洲。基礎工事の状態も知らぬ間に、ここも地下鉄豊洲駅の上にあるビルの目の前に、同じようなビルがもう一本建っている。豊洲一帯は石川島播磨の工場があり、駅前のビルの高層階からはそのドックを見下ろす形でよく海上自衛隊の護衛艦がメンテされていたのを見かけたものだ。たまたまこのビルに打ち合わせに行ってみて窓の外を眺めてみたら、そのドックもなくなり、隣にゆりかもめの駅、高層マンションが建ち、まったく違う風景になっていた。

樋口廣太郎氏の教えに倣って成田から東京へのリムジンバスからクレーンを確認する。東京への約 1時間 の風景では、クレーンがやたらと目につく。お台場のあたりは近未来都市をさらに再開発しているようだ。

ビルの供給がこれだけ増えるとそれに伴ってビルの設備への需要が増える。つまりビルは建てただけでは機能せず、ビルにつけるガラス、エレベータ、トイレ、オフィスの机や椅子、テーブル、自動ドア、通信設備、空調設備、電源、照明、そしてテナントに入るレストラン…などなど、あらゆる業種・業界にその効果が波及する。

私が行った街は他には東京や渋谷くらいしかないが、六本木の防衛庁跡地も再開発されているはずである。

◆ ◇ ◆

久しぶりの電車、相変わらずケータイ利用率は多い。ケータイの機能はもはや世界一であろう。そして 1 年 8 ヶ月も経てばさすがにモデルチェンジしたのだろう、見たことのないクルマも多かった。今回の好景気においては 80 年代終わりから 90 年初めのバブル期とは違い、少なくとも私が渡米する直前より、文字通り地に足がついているように感じた。

私が住むアメリカでも最近景気がいいらしく、夕方の帰宅するクルマの列の渋滞の列が長くなってきた(そう、クルマ社会のアメリカでは、満員電車ではなくて夕方 5 時頃帰宅するクルマの、フリーウェイへ入るランプの入り口の渋滞の長さで景気を測るのだ)。また、新築のアパート(アメリカのアパート=日本のマンション)も増えている。しかし私がこの目で見た日本経済の勢いはアメリカと同等かそれ以上のものだと感じた(地方の波及効果はどうだろう? 見てないのでわからない。。東京だけ見て 「景気が良い」と言ってたらごめんなさい。ただこの勢いからするといずれ地方にも波及するのでは?もしくは、日本では都市部での勝ち組・地方での負け組がはっきりしてくるかもしれない。それはそれで考えなきゃいけない)。

後は 「流動性のわな」 に陥っていた日本経済への金融政策だ。日銀は量的緩和を解除を宣言したが、注目すべきは今後のゼロ金利解除ならびに公定歩合の引き上げ動向である(消費税引き上げも待ったなしだが、直近ではゼロ金利解除であろう)。この舵取りいかんで、セオリーどおり日本経済の景況は長く続くだろうし、崩れたりもするだろうから。

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