人に「これから悪いことが起こる」と言われたら？

　　例えば引っ越しを考えていて、風水などで「時期が悪い」「方角が悪い」と見たり聞いたりしたケースを考えてみよう。

　　その引っ越し先の家賃や物件の価格があまりにも理不尽な場合はウラに何かあると思って考えなければならないが、行動経済学の観点からはそれはまったくもって関係がない。

　　もし風水を無視して引っ越して、その後悪い予言が的中してしまった場合は、何か悪いことが起きたときに「やっぱりあのとき言うことを聞いておけばよかった」とそのせいにすることができる。逆に、最初が悪い場合は（行動経済学ではそれを参照点という）、より悪くなるよりも、より良くなる方の確率が高いといえる。ある時点の状態より良くなるか悪くなるかというのは、1/2 の確率で起こるからである。良いは悪いの反対語で、そして悪いは良いの反対語である。良いか悪いかという状態は 2つに 1つだからである。

　　最初が（たとえば最高に）良いと、そこから先は落ちるしかないだろう。最高に良い状態をキープするのは難しいからである。

　　人をコントロールしようと思ったら簡単だ。人を恐怖に落とし入れる理由を与えればいい。政治家がこの手法を使う。身近なところでも、占い師とか TV のコメンテータ（株式市場に対するコメントとか）とかによく見られる。どっちみち、良いか悪いかの 1/2 なので、当たる確率も 1/2、予想が当たれば「ほらみたことか」、はずれれば、何らかの理由をつけてくるはず。しかし、どっちみち当たってるかはずれてるかわかるのは予想したときよりも後（未来のことを予想するのが予言）だから、もし結果が明らかになったところで予言者にクレームをつけたとしても、「それより…」と、次の違う予想を言って過去を顧みないのが彼らの常套手段であろう。

　　このあたりは、「行動経済学（人間の心理にも基づく予想）」「ヤバい経済学（不動産屋がどんな言葉を使ってだますか）」あたりに詳しい。

　　繰り返しになるが、自分がとことん悪い状況に置かれたときは、それ以上悪くはならない。もし悪くなったら、それより前は実は最高に悪い状態ではなかった、ということである。その場合、次回は物事が良くなる確率の方が上がるのだから、実は良いケースなのである（あくまで良いか悪いかはそのときの相対的な価値観だから）。参照点が相対的に「悪い」ゾーンに入っているときは、「良い」ゾーンの方に空きが多いのだ。

　　冒頭の引っ越しのケースは、要は自分自身が「客観的にみてリーズナブルだ」と思うところに住めば良いのだと思う。

　　もともと、その「方角や時期が悪い」という情報の提供元は、間違っていたときにその後の面倒をすべて見てくれるのだろうか？ほとんどのケースはそんな気もないのに、他人の人生における意思決定にずいぶん無責任なことをいうと思う。（娯楽としての占い師を見るなら話は別だが）恐怖は金になるのだ。

　　かといって、私も責任持てるかというと、もしそのまま決めてしまって悪いことが起きたときに責任は持てない。しかし、上に述べたことは、悪いことが起こったときに対処できる、心理的に十分合理的な理由を挙げているはずだ。

　　人は誰でも大きな決断をするときには背中を押してくれる理由が欲しいのだ、と行動経済学はそう述べている。最後に決めるのは自分である。何事も自己責任（そのための情報収集はすべき）であり、あとは自分次第なのだ。

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Posted on 2006-07-22 by yas |

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